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Thursday, March 23, 2023

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Opinion Polls On The 2023 Elections By Bamidele Ademola-Olateju


Opinion polls on any given issue should reflect what the general population thinks and feels. It is typically conducted by administering several questions to those polled and weights are given to correct for several factors and a ratio is applied. The set of assumptions leads to the determination of the confidence interval. The degree of confidence in a given poll or its margin of error is very important.

Many who have followed me for a long time would recall my predictions on Buhari. It was spot on because I did my research. Pollsters (those who conduct opinion Polls) should not behave like shameless religionists and charlatans who predict nonsense at the beginning of every year through guess work. Polling should be based on statistics not numbers generated in offices.

I have given my predictions on this election at the Diplomatic couch hosted by the Alumni of Obafemi Awolowo University (International Relations) in early August. Nothing much has changed since then.

My party is the All Progressives’ Congress (APC). If I want to campaign, I would. If I want to be partisan, I would. My campaign is not online because I know where the real voters are. Facebook is for public intellection and opinion molding. When it comes to intellectual output, I am non-partisan. I say it as I see it.

People get away with charlatanism in this country, because we move on quickly and no one holds them to account. Reading the polls by Stears made me laugh today. Tinubu needs only 37% of the votes and the 25% spread in 24 states to win on the first ballot and avoid a run off. As at today, he is polling 33% with a large swathe of undecided voters. Atiku is on his chase, followed by Obi and Kwakwanso on the trail.

This election as at today depends on the 13% undecided voter. Kwakwanso is surging in Kano, Katsina and Jigawa based on old NEPU and PRP populism especially in these hard times. Atiku is also gaining. The undecided will break three ways, for Tinubu to win at the first ballot, he should go back to the North, and meet leaders in small settings. Taraba and Plateau are bellwether states and Tinubu is a few points short of 25% in Taraba. He should go back there.

As at today, he’ll have a sweep in Ondo, Ekiti, Kogi and Kwara where Obi is not registering at all. Like Tinubu, Obi will sweep the Southeast with similar percentages The voters are getting more sophisticated than we give them credit for. They are separating their Presidential choice from other races. This will be evident in the numbers for gubernatorial candidates.

I am putting this here for those who follow politics and are interested in political outcomes. The cash squeeze and fuel scarcity has not hurt Tinubu. In the SW, it has driven voters to him instead. The election is barely two weeks away. We’ll see who is right between Stears and I.

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